Iran and the Geopolitics of the Future
Written in the year 2020 CE
Since we are heading toward a multipolar—regional—world in the future and in the long term, alliance-building has now begun as we find ourselves in a transitional period. One of the signs of this transitional era is the formation of political and economic alliances, which I addressed in an article titled: Will China Become a Hegemonic Power in the World? In the international arena, in every continent, any country that possesses economic, political, military-population capabilities and enjoys geopolitical importance will take on the leadership of its own regional bloc. These regional poles, for example, include the European Union led by Germany, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by China, Brazil in South and Central Latin America, South Africa in the south of the African continent, and other minor poles in other parts of the world. Amid this, various power poles will engage with one another based on their cultural, economic, political, and military coordinates. However, Iran, in the short term, due to its vast geographical expanse and geopolitical role, must first enhance its economic capabilities before making decisions about entering regional pacts that go beyond mere economic alliances. The closest regional alliance is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Yet, since Russia is part of this pact and has historically competed with Iran in Central Asia—and today also competes with Iran in the energy sector and its exports—premature closeness to this organization could bring a shadow role for Iran. Likewise, Iran’s military-political alliance with the West would also limit Iran’s room for maneuver. In my view, Iran must, in the short term, pursue a balanced strategic policy with political powers, following the doctrine of the late Mossadegh in relation to all power poles. In the first step, Iran should avoid regional tensions and engage in constructive dialogue with regional countries. The second step for Iran will be to resolve tensions with the United States of America.
However, on the other hand, in my opinion, Egypt is Iran’s strategic ally in the Middle East; together with Egypt, Iran would be able to play a strategic role in the Middle East. Iran and Egypt, based on their human-population capacities, cultural and historical significance, abundant energy resources, large markets, and—most importantly—the geopolitical importance of these two countries, can support each other’s military and economic capabilities and form a powerful regional pole. And bring political, economic, and military stability to the Middle East. After the formation of this pole, it could bring along other Middle Eastern countries as well as parts of Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan, and cooperate and interact with neighboring poles such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Iran’s premature closeness to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would result in nothing but Iran being placed in the shadow within this organization.
Therefore, any unbalanced policy and premature closeness to any political-economic-military bloc would be detrimental to Iran and would deprive it of political-economic bargaining power.
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