The US strategy in the Middle East is to fill the exit vacuum with the Abrahamic NATO in the Middle East Meanwhile, American diplomacy succeeded in encouraging Arab countries to join the Abraham Accords. Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have already joined the Abraham Accords but despite the success of the United States the efforts to encourage the region’s most important country, Saudi Arabia, to join the pact have failed. Recent US efforts to get Saudi Arabia to join the treaty would meet Saudi conditions, including the formation of a Palestinian state, a condition that Israel’s right-wing government strongly opposed accepting it, because according to the ideological doctrine of the Israeli right-wing parties, it is not possible to accept a Palestinian state.
On the other hand, since Saudi Arabia considers itself one of the most important regional players in the political and strategic games of the region, it is unfortunate to be placed under Israel’s leadership in the agreement. In addition, Saudi Arabia conditioned the accession to the treaty on the beginning of nuclear research on its territory and the consent of the United States and Israel. From this condition, it can be concluded that Saudi Arabia has no other goal than to create a strategic balance with Israel and Iran. But this is the most difficult condition that the US and Israel can agree on.
Therefore, despite American pressure, Saudi Arabia still refused to join the Abraham Accords, and American efforts have so far failed. Since 2019, however, Saudi Arabia has established informal security relations with Israel and opened its airspace to Israeli airlines. Another obstacle to Saudi Arabia joining the Abrahamic agreement is the religious political role and credibility of Saudi Arabia among Muslim countries. Therefore, this country’s public relations with Israel can undermine its religious and political credibility among Muslim countries.
The early accession of the UAE to the Abraham Accords and its regional interventions and adventures, including its involvement in the Yemen war and its recent role in the Sudan war, i.e. support for the Rapid Support Force led by General Hamidt. In addition, financial support to Ethiopia for the construction of the Al-Nehza Dam on the Nile to deprive Egypt of Nile water and the resulting weakening of Egypt. The strategic game of the UAE can be classified as a political game that Israel plays in the region, and the weakening of Egypt can remove Egypt from the stage of regional competition.
Saudi Arabia’s recent diplomatic efforts in the Arab League to support Syria’s joining the Arab League take place within the framework of political-strategic competitions and alignments in creating political balance in the region. Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s support for General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan in the Sudanese civil war is a competition with the United Arab Emirates, and indirectly with Israel.
Before the start of the recent civil war in Sudan, the USA and U.A.E with political pressure and economic enticement. tried to persuade Sudan to join the Abraham accord. However, due to the competition between Sudan’s military leaders, namely General Al-Burhan and General Hamidti, the efforts of the United States, United Arab Emirates remained fruitless. Meanwhile, Sudan has established informal relations with Israel for some time.
On the other hand, the diplomatic relation between Iran and Saudi Arabia with China`s mediatory, and Iran’s effort to have relations with Bahrain takes place precisely in the field of this regional strategic game. Morocco wants the support of the United States and Israel to recognize the annexation of the occupied Western Sahara, joined the Abraham agreement. On the other hand, given the political and military rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, Morocco can acquire advanced weapons from Israel and the United States by joining the Abraham Pact.
The Abrahamic NATO agreement pursues the following goals:
1. Isolating Iran
2. Reducing the influence of China and Russia in the Middle East region
3. Israel’s economic access to the markets of regional countries through the export of goods and the sale of weapons, and most importantly, the solution of the Palestinian issue within the cantonal autonomy. Because the formation of a Palestinian government could lead to a 70 percent reduction in Israel’s water quota from the Jordan River, and the country faces a serious water shortage problem.
4. Israeli hegemony and supremacy in the Middle East and the Arab countries commitment and adherence to American Israeli policies.
But what can neutralize Abrahamic NATO or create a strategic balance in the Middle East is the formation of a regional agreement between Syria, Iraq, Arabia and Iran and Egypt, which have both military, economic and political power in the region. This agreement can act independently in negotiations in the global political and economic arena and lay the foundation for the formation of a pole in the future multipolar world.
But when it comes to Iranian politics, Iran needs to shed its illusory political, cultural and ideological shell and adjust real politics based on national interests both regionally and globally. Iran should treat countries in the region, especially its allies, with mutual respect and stop arming militia groups in the region and encourage them to act as political and civil organizations in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
In addition to changing Iran’s behavior in the region, Israel must also put aside its illusory political-ideological imagination based on the legendary of Nile-Euphrates ideology and the policy of divide and conquer to ensure its regional supremacy. Furthermore, by recognizing the formation of the Palestinian state ensures its presence as a member of the Middle Eastern countries.
Conclusion
The era of ideology-based alliance building is over, and the end of the one single imperial world power era is over. But unfortunately, the United States and Europe still live with the illusion of a unipolar western-centric world and white supremacy. But the history washes away this illusion soon. The multi-polar world is a reality soon. In the multi-polar world, diplomatic flexibility and regional alliance and inter-regional strategic balance can provide and sustain the national interests of all countries including the Middle East countries. How the role of countries in this regional framework or regional alliance can be defined depends on their geostrategic weight and their economic-political-cultural capabilities.
But the politicians, intellectuals and citizens of the Middle East would do well to put aside tribalism and understand a new interpretation of history to understand the new world multipolar order. It can promote unity and cooperation in the various political, economic, cultural, and social fields of the countries of the region.
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